Monat: November 2020

Même si les options sur les bitcoins de 525 millions de dollars arrivent à échéance vendredi, les taureaux devraient défendre avec vigueur le niveau de 15,5 000 dollars.

Le 13 novembre, un total de 525 millions de dollars d’intérêts ouverts sur les options Bitcoin (BTC) arrivera à échéance. Ce chiffre est similaire à celui de la semaine dernière, où 470 millions de dollars d’options à intérêt ouvert ont également expiré. Cela représente une activité quelque peu inhabituelle, car la plupart des volumes passent par des options mensuelles et trimestrielles.

Le 5 novembre (vendredi dernier), l’intérêt ouvert des options de vente (put) était de 30 % supérieur à celui des options d’achat (call). La bourse Deribit détient 431 millions de dollars d’intérêts ouverts pour l’expiration de ce vendredi et Bit.com en détient 72 millions.

Avant de tirer des conclusions rapides sur le caractère haussier ou baissier de ce chiffre, il est important d’avoir une vision plus détaillée afin d’évaluer la pression potentielle d’achat et de vente à l’approche de l’échéance.

Par exemple, un détenteur d’une option d’achat de 18 000 $ ne gagne pas beaucoup à faire monter le prix de Bitcoin à 16 500 $ à moins de 32 heures de l’expiration. Ces options sont déjà jugées sans valeur par le marché. On peut en dire autant d’une option de vente (put) à 14 000 $.

Ainsi, en excluant les options d’achat supérieures à 16 700 $ et les options de vente inférieures à 14 400 $, les opérateurs peuvent avoir une vision plus réaliste des conditions actuelles du marché.

Dériver les options BTC pour l’échéance du 13 novembre.

La bourse Deribit détient 5 915 options d’achat BTC allant de 14 000 à 15 750 dollars. Bit.com a 1 050 BTC et OKEx en détient actuellement 490. Il y a donc un intérêt ouvert immédiat de 117 millions de dollars qui soutient les niveaux actuels.

En attendant, les options de vente allant de 15 250 à 16 500 dollars s’élèvent à 2 130 BTC chez Deribit, suivies de 860 BTC chez Bit.com, plus 100 BTC chez OKEx. Ainsi, la pression immédiate du côté de la vente s’élève à 48 millions de dollars d’intérêts ouverts provenant des options de vente.

La raison de cette différence est que la plupart des options de vente ont été dépréciées et n’ont pas de valeur marchande. Ce mouvement exclut 84% des 298 millions de dollars d’intérêts ouverts des options de vente.

Par conséquent, si l’on analyse uniquement les prix des options qui se rapprochent le plus des niveaux du marché, on constate un déséquilibre important de 69 millions de dollars en faveur du côté de l’achat. Comme la semaine précédente, il y a eu quelques grosses transactions baissières probablement liées aux élections américaines.

Même si le marché a suffisamment de force pour briser la résistance de 16 000 $, ces options à court terme soutiennent actuellement des prix de 15 500 $ et plus.

Les contrats hebdomadaires OKEx, Bit.com et Deribit arrivent à échéance le 13 novembre à 8h00 (UTC).

Les points de vue et opinions exprimés ici sont uniquement ceux de l’auteur et ne reflètent pas nécessairement les vues de Cointelegraph. Tout investissement et toute transaction comporte des risques. Vous devez effectuer vos propres recherches lorsque vous prenez une décision.

The fear and greed index displays a current value of „extreme greed“.

This shift in market sentiment follows weeks of price hikes that took Bitcoin’s price to nearly $ 16,000.

Uncontrolled optimism in the market may indicate that a local top is near

An important measure of market sentiment for Bitcoin and cryptocurrency, known as the Fear and Greed Index, now displays a value of “Extreme Greed”. This apparent change in sentiment follows several weeks of steady gains in the BTC price.

Bitcoin’s price practically hit $ 16,000 on the morning of Friday, November 6. The return of such widespread optimism may indicate that a local top is near.

The return of “extreme greed”

The recent price rise has inspired renewed confidence in the Bitcoin market. The popular fear and greed index now measures extreme greed.

The fear and greed index is now at 90. We can now peak at any time!

The indicator’s current value, 90, is the highest for more than 12 months. The last time „extreme greed“ took hold of the market was the sharp rise in 2019 which pushed the price up to $ 13,000.

The index also approached extreme greed levels in August of this year. However, just last month the market fell into a state of “Fear”.

The indicator provides a form of measurement of general market sentiment. It takes into account volatility, market dynamism, social media sentiment, surveys, and Bitcoin’s dominance relative to the rest of the market to produce a score out of 100.

This score is then represented as a reading of “extreme fear”, “fear”, “neutrality”, “greed” or “extreme greed”. The indicator is inspired by the famous quote from Warren Buffet: “Be fearful when others are greedy, and greedy when others are fearful”.

Bitcoin is close to $ 16,000

Recent Bitcoin price action is behind the reading of the Extreme Greed Indicator. Since the start of October, the leading digital currency has gained around $ 5,000 in value. BTC is now trading at around $ 15,500 and is at levels not seen for almost three years.

The price was influenced by a mix of positive developments and lingering uncertainties in other markets. As for the macroeconomic outlook, stimulus efforts against COVID-19 and the US presidential election have prompted investors to seek a safe place to park value.

In what has become a new trend, large publicly traded companies are starting to invest liquidity reserves in Bitcoin. Companies like MicroStrategy , Square and others have announced significant positions in digital currency to protect against uncertain macroeconomic conditions.

Are we approaching a summit?

As pointed out market analyst The Moon (@TheMoonCarl) above, the return playing extreme greed could indicate a local peak of the course. The quote from Buffett that inspired the indicator itself warns that overconfidence in a market often precedes a correction.

During the bullish price of 2019, the Fear and Greed Index peaked at 95 on June 26. The next day, according to CoinGecko, the price hit $ 12,996 before starting a multi-month correction, reaching its lowest point in late December at around $ 6,600.

That said, there is nothing to suggest that the coming correction will be as drastic as that of 2019. Truth be told, many traders say that the price action that led to this sharp rise is fundamentally stronger than it was in 2019. was last year.

In recent videos, YouTuber and technical analyst Tone Vays called for a price pullback. Such corrections are important during periods of prolonged price increases because they create support points, which can lead to stronger movements afterwards.

The Bitcoin course seems tireless.

After the crypto currency BTC fell in the context of the massive corrections in March of this year on 3,500 dollar, Bitcoin notes up-to-date with 15.200$ and stands thus directly for the first time for several years over 15.000 USD. However, other large-cap crypto currencies such as Binance Coin (BNB) and Chainlink (LINK) have had to struggle with sell-offs in the past 7 days. In the 24h view, however, LINK and Litecoin (LTC) are the winners of the hour alongside Bitcoin.

In this article we look at the current situation on the market and the development of the Bitcoin price.
Bitcoin price with strong momentum

I already mentioned it in the introduction: Since the year’s low of about $3,500 the Bitcoin share price has more than quadrupled in about 8 months. At the current time the crypto currency notes with 145.200 US Dollar.

The following chart shows the development in the last 30 days and underlines the positive and bullish momentum, which underlies the largest crypto currency by market capitalization.

Bitcoin price development 30 days

It is clear that the current US elections in 2020 have also brought renewed volatility to the market. With a price jump of around 10% in the last 24 hours, the Bitcoin price increased by almost 1300 dollars – measured in absolute figures.

In a Forbes interview, trader and analyst John Kramer commented on the current BTC price:

Bitcoin has recovered from the very short term post selection drop and is again above $14,000. Even though we do not yet know what will come after the election, many investors – depending on the election winner – expect a large stimulus package. This should further benefit Bitcoin and its limited supply.

Again, the narrative of Bitcoin as Digital Gold is clear with a limited number of BTCs at 21,000,000. The numerous measures taken this year to stimulate the economy and the associated keyword „quantitative easing“ favor BTC.

The crypto currency is backed by many large companies that are now also investing in Bitcoin in order to profitably invest part of their dollar reserves.
Bitcoin dominates large-cap crypto currencies

Even though other top ten crypto currencies show green figures in the last 24 hours, we see a different perspective on the 7-day view.

While Bitcoin shows double digit increases in the last 7 days, we see almost exclusively red numbers in the other major crypto currencies.

Bitcoin course and Top 10 crypto currencies

Especially Bitcoin Cash (BCH), Chainlink (LINK) and Binance Coin (BNB) were affected by last week’s sales. The just mentioned crypto currencies show relatively high losses of 6.28, 4.45 and 7.89 percent. Despite the current good 24-hour performance, the above-mentioned crypto currencies are in the red in the 7-day trend.

Parallel to this, the Bitcoin dominance rises again and underlines the current leading position of Bitcoin. The high Bitcoin price is thus the result of many factors.